Unpacking climate impact CHAINs. A new generation of action - and user-oriented climate change risk assessments
Planning climate change adaptation requires a rigorous and shared scientific knowledge base which must be translated into local practical and actionable knowledge on climate risks and adaptation options. Therefore, a constructive dialogue between researchers and stakeholders is at the core of this project. The project will take as reference point the concept impact chain. This concept focuses on identifying and describing important links between the different components of climate risks. Then indicators are selected for each of these components, and the data collected are normalized before being aggregated with different weights. This project will further develop the approach by introducing five methodological innovations.
1) To cover also the possible need for long-term and large-scale efforts of societal transformation
2) To refine a structured method of co-production of knowledge and integrate this into impact modelling
3) To develop and test an applicable framework for analyzing how societal change can affect local climate change vulnerabilities
4) To develop and test a standardized analytical framework for addressing uncertainties involved in local decision-making on climate change adaptation.
5) To include the trans-national impacts of climate change and to link mitigation and adaptation in climate risk and vulnerability assessments
At the core of the project are 12 different cases in the 7 countries, including one case in Bangladesh. The Norwegian case concerns tourist traffic in Aurland, regional climate analysis in Rogaland, and fish farming in Northern Norway. Other case studies address climate risk in connection with train infrastructure in the Netherlands, forestry in Sweden, business along the Rhine in Germany, critical infrastructure in Germany, and southern tourism in Balearic Islands in Spain. Vestlandsforsking will lead the project.