Overlooked climate risks in the ongoing renewable energy transitions

By:
Article
Id:
October 2025
Publisher:
Science Direct
Journal:
Energy

This paper critically examines the current framing of climate risk in scientific and policy discussions, as well as energy modelling, concerning the transition to renewable energy systems. Applying the latest IPCC climate risk framework (hazards, exposures, vulnerabilities), we argue that prevailing discourse oversimplifies risk by primarily placing too much emphasis on climate change (the hazard part), and too little emphasis on societal changes (the exposures and vulnerability parts). Furthermore, analyses often concentrate on singular climate events, overlooking the potentially critical impacts of compound climate events – simultaneous or sequential events at different or the same locations. Emerging research indicates these compound events are particularly relevant for renewable energy systems. This perspective paper advocates for a revised agenda integrating the full IPCC climate risk framework into the renewable energy transition. It stresses the necessity of investigating how this transition might alter vulnerabilities and exposures. These alterations, coupled with the increasing likelihood of compound climate events, could lead to a climate risk profile for renewable energy systems exceeding that of fossil-based systems, unless robust risk-reducing strategies are implemented.

The ongoing project "Creating sustainable renewable energy futures with low climate risks" (SUSRENEW) led by Vestlandsforsking and carried out in collaboration with researchers from NORCE, SINTEF, Institutt for energiteknikk, Høgskulen på Vestlandet, and Aalborg universitet, , in collaboration with representatives from the renewable energy sector, aims to develop proposals for strategies and measures that will reduce the physical climate risk for a future renewable energy system.