Improving climate change impact assessments of open economies by beyond state-of-the-art economic modelling approaches.

bårhavn

A case study on the implied transborder climate change risks of international supply chains.

Case 4

Status report, October 2021

Case content

We assess the impacts of transborder climate change effects via multi-national supply chains. Our macroeconomic simulation studies are carried out with the multi-national model GINFORS. In doing so, we control for the uncertainty of future exposure conditions by parametrisations of individual SSP scenarios. For the integrated assessment of potential economic impacts of climate and societal changes, we analyse the effects of national impacts on international supply chains. As a central case study, we look at Norwegian food production.

Research Innovations

  • Complementing qualitative impact analysis with numerical assessments.
  • Relevant macroeconomic supply-chain interlinkages are assessed.
  • Uncertainties are illustrated through individual parametrisations of socio-economic scenarios.
  • The chosen analytical focus is concentrated on the mapping of transborder climate change impacts.

Study areas

Transborder effects of climate change impacts; Macroeconomic assessment, Norwegian food production and multi-national supply chains.

Stakeholders involved

The impacts analysed in the model application are derived from insights of stakeholder participations in the Norwegian case studies of the UNCHAIN project.

Summary data collection

Main working tools are in-house designed macroeconometric simulation models (PANTA RHEI, GINFORS). These models are generally characterised by their comprehensive empirical foundation (historical time series observations from well established statistical reporting frameworks like National Accounts, Input-Output Tables, Energy Balances, ...).

For the simulation studies, the model databases have to be supplemented by case specific input data. SPP datasets can be freely accessed on servers of the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA). The GINFORS model includes bilateral data on international trade by different industries. Specific data for goods that are highly exposed to transborder climate change risks are available in the COMTRADE database.

Expected results

Methodological improvements: Support the Impact Chain approach by dynamic modelling; identification of Impact Chain system elements; contribute quantified assessments to the qualitative strands of Impact Chains; macroeconomic assessment of transborder climate change risks; mapping socioeconomic aspects involved in Impact Chain assessments.

Case study responsible

Gesellschaft für Wirtschaftliche Strukturforschung (GWS)